Binding: Paperback
EAN: 9780141034591
ISBN: 0141034599
Label: Penguin
Manufacturer: Penguin
Number Of Pages: 400
Publication Date: February 28, 2008
Publisher: Penguin
Studio: Penguin

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Rating: - Strangest reading experience of my life
I originally bought this book last year, I read about half of it but gave up in disgust at the general pretentiousness and repetition.
I picked it up again this year after the credit crunch had hit and it seemed to be a different book, funny with some insight into current market turmoil! Assuming the book hadn't changed while on my shelf, presumably I had.

The core idea is very simple, Gaussian (Normal/ bell curves) distributions are overused in finance and they critically underestimate ... Read More

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Rating: - Tiresome and Unoriginal

As a statistician, the book and its premise struck me as an interesting read, but it is clear after a few chapters that the book itself is meandering nowhere. What is worse is that the evidence is always second hand philosophy and the book is peppered with uninteresting self promotion. If your idea of a good read is to re-read Bertrand Russell or to move towards a footnote where the author feels it important to tell you he doesnt wear a tie in meetings then, please, feel free to lap this up and all the ... Read More

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Rating: - Partial plagiarism of his central thesis?
Reading these reviews leads me immediately to the realisation that this work may possibly be little better than plagiarism. Siméon-Denis Poisson first examined the statistical modelling of low-probability events in 1838, within a much wider corpus of scientific research in pure and applied natural and social sciences. One immediate conclusion is that the probability of low-odds events occurring (where there is no impedement to frequent possible events) is much higher than normal binomial probability suggests. ... Read More

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Rating: - Scintillating
One of the most intelligent pieces of writing I have come across in my reading career.

It opens up some many new ways of viewing life and its events. Delivered with a delightful touch of arrogance, sudden humour, and iconoclastic precision - the book unearths a paradigm which is so overarchingly pervasive yet consciously ignored by people.

The author's tribute to, and coverage of Benoit Mandelbrot, along with the pooh-poohing of the 'normal' model of reality is a salient highlight, and ... Read More

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Rating: - Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition...
This book is a black swan because against all the odds it got published. It has one idea swollen unappealingly to almost 400 pages. It is full of stereotypes, rich in "imaginative" anecdotes and insufferably pompous. If you want to read about chance and probability then try Ian Stewart; for Chance and Necessity read Jacques Monod (1972).

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